The Truth About Rally Length
By Jorge Capestany, RSPA Master Professional & PTR International Master Professional.
If you teach or play tennis, you’re gonna wanna read this.
A few years ago, my good buddy Craig O’Shannessy released some new data from the pro tour that disrupted the coaching community and tennis industry.
Craig is the lead strategy analyst for the WTA and ATP tours. If you want to see his website, it is at www.BrainGameTennis.com. I recommend you check it out.
Here is the cool part… Craig and I were recently at the USPTA World Conference on Tennis in New Orleans, and I asked him face-to-face if he would allow me to share some of his stats and data that come straight off the pro tour with my followers.
He has agreed! This is only for those on my list; much of this information is available on his subscription website. Craig has access to data from the pro tour that we won’t have. The information blew me away and has literally changed the way I coach and teach. I can guarantee you that you need to see these numbers.
Interestingly, I wanted to see if the data Craig revealed was actually accurate for my players, so I did some match charting of my kids at a USTA tournament, and what Craig predicted was spot on.
What am I talking about?
Rally Length
This data had never really been analyzed before, so Craig decided to take a deep dive into the stats, and what he found was literally game-changing. Below is an article he has allowed me to share from his website. Please note that Craig sells this type of data on his website, and he has agreed to let me share it with you for free. Please do not distribute this email or post the information online.
From Craig …Rallies come in all shapes and sizes. They can be short, medium, or long. They can be grinding or attacking, and they are mixed up all over the place during a match. Short ones follow long ones, with medium ones also surfacing at any time. The random length of the point creates a natural disguise, making the length not really matter that much. Rally length has flown under the radar for far too long. The length of a rally may seem unimportant, but, my friends, that is just a beautiful illusion.
I (Craig) was the tournament’s analyst at this year’s Australian Open. I examined a wealth of analytics every day, looking here, there, and everywhere for the real keys to winning and losing.
It’s normal to look at the obvious culprits, such as forehand winners, approaching, first serve percentage, yadda, yadda, yadda…
But something really caught my eye. Rally length had been sitting there minding its own business all along – I had just not sat down and investigated it. How long a rally is REALLY matters. It is definitely the proverbial monster in the room, sitting there quietly, attracting very little attention, until you suddenly have a really good look at it, and then say to yourself – holy $%#@$@, there is a monster in the room! Get ready for your jaw to hit the ground.
As you will see from these revolutionary numbers below, shorter points completely dominate our sport.
Data is from the Men’s draw at the 2015 Australian Open
70% are First Strike (0-4 shots)
20% are Patterns of Play (5-9 shots)
10% are extended Rallies (10+ shots)
Average Rally length… Remember all the rallying back and forth you love to do from the baseline? Forget about it…
Of all the information in Num3ers (that’s Craig’s course he sells), of all the percentages uncovered that shed light on our great game, average rally length has got to be one of the most shocking. You would think that since pros are the best in our sport at hitting a ball in, they would have long rallies with lots of mental, physical, and emotional dueling out there on the court.
Furthermore, the best players in the world are competing in the most prestigious tournaments. should be able to make a ton of balls. After all, isn’t that what makes them so good? Shot tolerance is a term coaches throw around a lot. Is it overused? Overstated?
In addition, if you thought that the average rally length was longer because the players are better, you need to think again. If you presumed that points last longer on the women’s tour because of slightly less power in their game, then you got that one wrong as well.
Let’s have a close look at two of the most important graphs in our sport – average rally length for both men and women from the Round of 16 onwards at the 2015 Australian Open.
MEN – 2015 Australian Open: Rd 16 to the Final
| Round |
Players |
Score |
Ave Shots / Point |
| Final |
Djokovic d Murray |
6-7, 6-7, 6-3, 6-0 |
5.5 |
| Semi |
Djokovic d Wawrinka |
7-6, 3-6, 6-4, 6-4, 6-0 |
4.8 |
| Semi |
Murray d Berdych |
6-7, 6-0, 6-3, 7-5 |
4.6 |
| Quarter |
Djokovic d Raonic |
7-6, 6-4, 6-2 |
3.5 |
| Quarter |
Wawrinka d Nishikori |
6-3, 6-4, 7-6 |
3.7 |
| Quarter |
Berdych d Nadal |
6-2, 6-0, 7-6 |
4.1 |
| Quarter |
Murray d Kyrgios |
6-3, 7-6, 6-3 |
3.9 |
| Rd 16 |
Djokovic d Muller |
6-5, 7-5, 7-5 |
3.5 |
| Rd 16 |
Raonic d Lopez |
6-4, 4-6, 6-3, 6-7, 6-3 |
2.7 |
| Rd 16 |
Wawrinka d Garcia-Lopez |
7-6, 6-4, 4-6, 6-3 |
4.2 |
| Rd 16 |
Nishikori d Federer |
6-3, 6-3, 6-3 |
4.7 |
| Rd 16 |
Berdych d Tomic |
6-2, 7-6, 6-2 |
4.3 |
| Rd 16 |
Nadal d Anderson |
7-5, 6-1, 6-4 |
4.1 |
| Rd 16 |
Murray d Dimitrov |
6-4, 6-7, 6-3, 7-5 |
4.7 |
| Rd 16 |
Kyrigios d Seppi |
5-7, 4-6, 6-3, 7-6, 8-6 |
4.1 |
|
AVERAGE |
|
4.2 Shots / Point |
WOMEN – 2015 Australian Open: Rd 16 to the Final
| Round |
Players |
Score |
Ave Shots / Point |
| Final |
S. Williams d Sharapova |
6-3, 7-6 |
3.1 |
| Semi |
S. Williams d Key |
7-6, 6-2 |
2.8 |
| Semi |
Sharapova d Makarova |
6-3, 6-2 |
3.9 |
| Quarter |
S. Williams d Cibulkova |
6-2, 6-2 |
3.3 |
| Quarter |
Keys d V. Williams |
6-3, 4-6, 6-4 |
3.3 |
| Quarter |
Makarova d Halep |
6-4, 6-0 |
4.2 |
| Quarter |
Sharapova d Bouchard |
6-3, 6-2 |
3.6 |
| Rd 16 |
S. Williams d Marguruza |
2-6, 6-3, 6-2 |
3.8 |
| Rd 16 |
Cibulkova d Azarenka |
6-2, 3-6, 6-3 |
4.3 |
| Rd 16 |
Keys d Brengle |
6-2, 6-4 |
4.0 |
| Rd 16 |
V Williams d A. Radwanska |
6-3, 2-6, 6-1 |
4.8 |
| Rd 16 |
Makarova d Georges |
6-3, 6-2 |
3.6 |
| Rd 16 |
Halep d Wickmayer |
6-4, 6-2 |
3.9 |
| Rd 16 |
Bouchard d Begu |
6-1, 5-7, 6-2 |
3.9 |
| Rd 16 |
Sharapova d Peng |
6-3, 6-0 |
3.2 |
|
AVERAGE |
|
3.7 Shots / Point |
So let’s take this a step further and go through the first 4 shots, planning the primary and secondary tactics for each. Remember the “zero” in zero to four represents double faults, just in case that number threw you off (like it did for me before I figured out what it was).
1 Shot: Serve: Remember, we are seeking to force errors first – make the opponent uncomfortable and off balance. Don’t worry about hitting aces – they are just the icing on the cake for right now. The primary location in each service box is to go wide, stretching the opponent off the court. Many return errors originate from this location. Yes, you can also go body and T, but save those more as surprise serves, or when you are way up, or way down in the score.
2 Shot: Return: The best return you will ever hit is deep down the middle of the court, right at the server. You want to target the groundstroke that has the biggest backswing so you can rush it and force an error. For example, if the server has a backhand that goes straight back, like Djokovic, it’s extremely hard to rush. If your opponent has a forehand with a big backhand like Lleyton Hewitt, then that’s the side you pick to attack. You can also go wide with the return and instantly stretch the server, but it’s best to run this secondary pattern after many deep middle returns, so the server isn’t ready for it.
3 Shot: Serve + 1: You want this to be your stronger side, so for nearly everyone, it will be a forehand. Players like Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal are always looking for a Serve + 1 forehand, while players like Djokovic will mix in more backhands because their technique is so strong, simple, and tough to rush. The primary location to hit this shot is DEEP. There are other qualities you can have on the shot, such as spin, power, height, and direction. Still, nothing beats getting the ball deep early in the rally to force the opponent back, place them in a neutral-to-defensive position, and receive a short ball back to attack.
4 Shot: Return + 1: This is something most players don’t think about, but the return needs to set up the next attacking shot. Another benefit of hitting a big return right down the middle is that you have a big target to hit an aggressive shot at, and the ball will naturally boomerang right back down the middle of the court, so there are no obvious angles for the returner to get hurt with. The returner does not have far to run to turn a backhand into a run-around forehand, and then take this shot DEEP to the opponent’s backhand and begin the process of kicking off a wide variety of Patterns of Play.
End of Craig’s data…
Jorge here… So I decided that if this data was true, then the way I was having my students practice (always practicing long rallies) was exactly the opposite of what they experienced in actual match play.
So to make sure the data was accurate for club players and juniors, I decided to chart four matches that two of my students played in a recent tournament. What I found was very revealing, and the numbers came in almost identical to what Craig said they would be.
Below are the results from all 4 matches I charted for my players.
My first player was J.P. Avila
Match 1: J.P. won 6-3, 6-3
| Types of Rallies: Point Breakdown: My |
|
My Player Won |
| 4 shots = 60% |
75 of 127 total points |
45 of 75 of these points = 60% |
| 5-9 shots = 33% |
42 of 127 total points |
17 of 42 of these points = 41% |
| 10+ shots – 7% |
10 of 127 total points |
8 of 10 of these points = 80% |
Match 2: J.P. won 6-2, 6-2
| Types of Rallies: Point Breakdown: My |
|
My Player Won |
| 4 shots = 61% |
63 of 104 total points |
36 of 63 of these points = 57% |
| 5-9 shots = 29% |
30 of 104 total points |
20 of 30 of these points = 67% |
| 10+ shots – 10% |
11 of 104 total points |
5 of 11 of these points = 45% |
My second player was Danny Kroeze.
Match 1: Danny won 7-5, 6-4
| Types of Rallies: Point Breakdown: My |
|
My Player Won |
| 4 shots = 70% |
84 of 120 total points |
41 of 84 of these points = 49% |
| 5-9 shots = 30% |
36 of 120 total points |
21 of 36 of these points = 58% |
| 10+ shots – 10% |
12 of 120 total points |
8 of 12 of these points = 67% |
Match 2: Danny won 6-3, 6-1
| Types of Rallies: Point Breakdown: My |
|
My Player Won |
| 4 shots = 79% |
129 of 164 total points |
72 of 129 of these points = 56% |
| 5-9 shots = 16% |
27 of 164 total points |
10 of 27 of these points = 37% |
| 10+ shots – 4% |
8 of 164 total points |
4 of 8 of these points = 50% |
For coaches and players alike. You need to address this information.
Maybe it’s not the best idea to try to rally long points and always try to outlast our opponents.
I have already made the changes in our classes, and we are focusing much more on First Strike Points (0-4 shots). After all, the numbers don’t lie.
Here is my personal position on all of this.
The way you play tennis is based on your skill level. In other words, the higher the skill level, the more you should be playing first-strike tennis.
The way you teach tennis is the exact opposite of how the pros play, in other words. Since everyone starts as a beginner, they might want to learn to play mostly consistent points, but as they get better and better, they need to transition toward first-strike tennis. Unfortunately, too many players never develop the attacking skills they need to beat really good players.
Perhaps a good development model would be…
You teach beginning players to play using extended points. (10+ shots)
If you teach Intermediate players, you may want to focus on patterns of play points (5-9 shots)
You teach Advanced players to play mostly first-strike tennis (0-4 shots)
I hope this new data gets you thinking about what really happens on the court, and good luck on the courts.
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